Since the midterm elections have concluded, Congress returns to complete work for the 115th Congress. The Lame Duck period, roughly four weeks between November 13 and mid-December, is full of uncertainty. Republicans in the House and Senate will need to cobble together voting blocs in order to pass any final legislative items on their wish list. This could prove a daunting task. However, several legislative items remain that must be completed by the end of the year.
First on that list is the completion of the remaining fiscal year 2019 appropriations bills. Earlier this year, Congress passed roughly half of the 12 spending bills before the September 30 deadline. The rest of the bills, including Commerce, Interior, Transportation, and other agencies, are operating under a Continuing Resolution (CR). Funding for agencies such as the Environmental Protections Agency (EPA), Department of Transportation, and others will expire on December 7. An agreement must be passed by then, or another Continuing Resolution to continue funding of the federal government, or those agencies will be shut down.
Prospects for this agreement are further complicated by the President’s desire for full funding for a border wall. The White House has signaled the potential of a veto of any package that does not provide full funding for the proposed wall. However, getting 60 votes for cloture in the Senate for this package appears highly unlikely, to say the least. Thus, the specter of a shutdown looms over spending negotiations. The Senate (and House) either needs to come to an agreement over the border wall, or needs to secure a veto-proof majority of their agreement to avoid an impasse. These negotiations will most likely occur behind closed doors.
Outside of spending bills, few must-pass items remain. The Farm Bill, the multi-year agricultural, nutrition, and farming-related authorization bill, must be dealt with. This bill contains several key agricultural support programs such as crop insurance and rural development. Since these programs are so essential to many districts and states, particularly those in the Midwest, the Farm Bill is an attractive vehicle to attach extraneous legislative priorities. Congress is faced with passing a broad farm package or kicking the can down the road with an extension of existing programs.
Other necessary items include Coast Guard reauthorization, flood insurance, and intelligence programs. Some of these items could prove to be contentious. Further complicating debate, a rash of natural disasters, including wildfires in California and hurricane relief, are sure to wedge into any number of debates. These debates pit local interests against each other, and have divided caucuses in the past (i.e. Hurricane Sandy relief). Expect these disaster relief programs to be resolved, but not until significant debate takes place.
Republicans have voiced their desire to pass another round of tax bills, targeted at making permanent several expiring or sunset provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). The House passed several provisions before August recess. However, the path forward remains unclear. The Senate has not signaled whether or not this is something they would take up.
Tax debates also include a set of technical corrections – policy fixes to several aspects of the TCJA that must be amended or fixed in order for language to function properly. While not typically a highly contentious issue, tax corrections this round have become a sticking point. Additionally, the ever-present debate around tax extenders – the annual or biennial set of tax credits for various sectors and industries – will likely find a place either within the corrections discussion, within the CR, or any other legislation that contains a tax title.
Finally, it is likely that the Senate will use a large portion of floor time to consider nominations and judges. Positions at the Department of Energy, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and various other agencies must be filled soon, and District and Court of Appeals judges have been a priority of the Majority Leader. Expect these nominations to consume a large portion of the Senate calendar, and potentially prolong the amount of time the Senate is in session – unless a bargain is struck to move a large package in exchange for policy concessions and sooner adjournment date.
Lame Duck is likely to be rather swift moving and defined by bargaining and deal-making. As is always the case, the potential for deadline drama exists. However, given the compressed time schedule, expect packages to be put together without significant debate and dictated by party leadership.
For questions on this article, please contact Doug MacGillivray of APGA staff by phone at 202-464-2742 or by email at
dmacgillivray@apga.org.